Our detailed sector analyses keep you up to date on the technological and economic trends in BayernLB's focus sectors (mobility, energy, technology, construction and basic commodities, mechanical and industrial engineering). We place the sectors in the context of economic and structural developments and enable informed decisions.
...lead to profound social, economic and political changes.
The megatrend concept goes back mainly to the 1982 book "Megatrends“ written by the US futurologist John Naisbitt. Building on Naisbitt's work, futurology today construes mega-trends as "long-term global trends“. However, opinions differ among researchers regarding the precise definition of the temporal dimension (how long is long-term?), the societal and geographical repercussions, and how such trends originate and unfold. At least there is a large degree of consensus about one set of factors: a megatrend should have a half-life of a minimum of 10-20 years, should lead to radical societal, economic and political changes, and should initially unfold slowly but then gain momentum and also be able to cope well with temporary setbacks. Both the number and the semantic range of megatrends differ depending on the research institution involved.
The dynamics of megatrends appear to be unstoppable and can only be influenced to a limited extent, at least in the short term, but they have an impact on companies, industries, countries and therefore on the capital markets. We and you, dear clients, are significantly affected by them on various levels.
Assessing the impact on economic developments and financial markets
We continue to leave futurology to futurologists; as BayernLB Research we concentrate on economic analysis, in the assessment of country risk and sector developments and in financial market analysis. Our aim is therefore first to filter out the megatrends most relevant to medium-term economic and financial market development. We will then analyse the development of these megatrends and their mutual influence, largely based on the assessment of experts in the respective fields. The main part of our megatrend research, however, is focused on analysing and forecasting the impact of these trends on the development of economies, industries and financial markets. In addition to special megatrend publications and sector analyses, which we intend to publish at irregular frequency in the future, we are also increasingly addressing the influence of megatrends in our regular publications.