Our compact monthly update on developments in the real economy and on financial markets.

Forecast Update Dezember 2019 (2019/12/17)

We're adjusting our Fed picture. The Fed will not cut interest rates until March. Nevertheless, the US money market and Treasuries are likely to correct from January.

Read more Forecast Update December 2019

A little must suffice (2019/11/28)

After touching bottom at the turn of the year, the economy will gradually pick up during 2020. With support forthcoming from further rate cuts, this should boost higher-risk assets.

Clear & concise

  • Despite a renewed decline in growth, the synchronous downswing will end in 2020;
  • Moderate pick-up in growth over the year, exposed to (downside) risks;
  • The Fed and the ECB will both lower their policy rates at the beginning of the year;
  • Divergence between the economic cycle and the financial-market cycle is widening;
  • Regarding asset allocation, we recommend overweighting higher-risk assets.

Read more A little must suffice - Outlook 2020