BayernLB

Research

Perspectives

Our compact monthly update on developments in the real economy and on financial markets.

Checking into intensive care (2020/4/1)

The global economy should shrink by 2% in 2020. Once the pandemic has been contained, we see a recovery in H2. Although remaining volatile, higher-risk asset prices ought to rise in the medium term.

Clear & concise

  • 2020 is going to witness a deep global recession.
  • Despite all the uncertainty, we see an economic recovery emerging in H2.
  • Additional monetary-policy and fiscal-policy measures are likely.
  • Higher-risk asset prices are in a bottoming phase.
  • Medium-term asset allocation should turn gradually more aggressive.

Read more Checking into intensive care (Perspectives edition 04/2020)

The coronavirus pandemic has triggered a deep (albeit temporary) recession (5-year forecast, 2020/3/19)

The coronavirus outbreak has triggered a deep global recession. Once the pandemic has been contained, we forecast a rapid recovery, followed by years of moderate growth. Yields are set to remain low.

Clear & concise

  • The 2020 global recession will be deeper than the one caused by the financial crisis;
  • Monetary and fiscal loosening will only take effect after the virus has been contained;
  • The economy, along with higher-risk asset prices, will recover from H2 2020 onwards.
  • A further surge in indebtedness implies persistently loose monetary policy worldwide;
  • Sustainability & digitalisation will play an even bigger role for the economy & markets.

Read more The coronavirus pandemic has triggered a deep (albeit temporary) recession (edition 03/2020)