Our compact monthly update on developments in the real economy and on financial markets.

A little must suffice (2019/11/28)

After touching bottom at the turn of the year, the economy will gradually pick up during 2020. With support forthcoming from further rate cuts, this should boost higher-risk assets.

Clear & concise

  • Despite a renewed decline in growth, the synchronous downswing will end in 2020;
  • Moderate pick-up in growth over the year, exposed to (downside) risks;
  • The Fed and the ECB will both lower their policy rates at the beginning of the year;
  • Divergence between the economic cycle and the financial-market cycle is widening;
  • Regarding asset allocation, we recommend overweighting higher-risk assets.

Read more A little must suffice - Outlook 2020