Perspectives edition 2021/11 (2021/11/24)
Clear & concise
- Containment of the pandemic will allow the economic recovery to continue in 2022;
- Inflation rates will sink over the course of the year, although risks are to the upside;
- Planned additional investment will not suffice for the 2030 climate targets to be hit;
- Central banks are going to focus on scaling back their ultra-loose monetary policy;
- Auspicious prospects for asset-value oriented segments: equities, industrial metals and real estate.
Video: An espresso with Jürgen Michels
2022 is destined to go down in the history-books as the third year of the coronavirus pan-demic. Even though a great deal of uncertainty is still swirling around, there is a good chance of us getting the better of the virus over the course of the year by means of (man-datory) vaccinations in large parts of the world. During winter in the northern hemisphere, admittedly, countries which have not “done their homework” are likely to get caught up again by the pandemic, experiencing substantial human suffering and economic losses. In these countries too, though, the return of spring should bring with it the return of the re-covery - an upswing which ought to then be crimped ever less by supply-chain problems.
When supply chains are restored, upside inflation pressure should also level off. What is more, further progress in resolving the consumption logjam ought to help to push inflation lower. What remains questionable, though, is the extent to which now higher inflation ex-pectations and the shortage of (skilled) workers in some sectors will feed through to rising wages. In these complex crosscurrents, the sharp hike in the German minimum wage planned by the prospective “traffic-light“ coalition could trigger a wage-price spiral. Fur-thermore, the additional investment on decarbonisation and digitalisation could also prove an inflation-driver due to heavily utilised capacities (above all in construction) and thus fail to unfold the desired effect on the real economy. For the ambitious climate targets to be met by 2030, considerably more still will have to be