A recovery beset by obstacles (5-year forecast, 2020/8/5)
After the collapse in Q2, the economy is back on track to recovery. Yet the upswing - over the coming five years too - will remain in the shadow of the virus and thus fraught with great uncertainty.
Clear & concise
- The 2020 slump in GDP is proving to be more dramatic than feared;
- A recovery should kick in from Q3 onwards despite the ongoing pandemic;
- The upswing will lose momentum in 2020 when the stimulus programmes expire;
- Central banks will adhere to their ultra-accommodative stance for a long time to come;
- The euro and European assets will benefit from the deal creating a Recovery Fund.