Our compact monthly update on developments in the real economy and on financial markets.

The desire for normality (Outlook on 2021, 2020/11/27)

There is a good chance of the new year sailing in quieter waters than 2020. But 2021, still marked by the pandemic as well as by political interventions, is not going to be a “normal” year either.

Clear & concise

  • 2021 growth will be determined by the pandemic and by the political responses to it.
  • The recovery should steady in H2 with the advent of across-the-board vaccinations.
  • The long-term consequences of the Covid pandemic will, on balance, crimp growth.
  • The Fed and the ECB will keep rates on hold but boost their balance sheets further.
  • Favourable prospects for higher-risk financial assets and for residential real estate.

Read more The desire for normality - Outlook on 2021 (edition 11/2020)

The second wave (2020/10/28)

The second wave of infections is leading to “light” lockdowns and to a pause in the economic recovery, but not to a renewed slump. Risk assets ought to gain ground again after the US elections.

Clear & concise

  • The second wave of infections will merely pause the economic recovery in the winter.
  • In the case of a “light“ lockdown, we should be spared a further economic slump.
  • Monetary and fiscal policymakers alike will further increase the degree of stimulus.
  • Uncertainty about the outcome of the US elections should only prove a brief burden.
  • From an asset-allocation perspective, we continue to overweight risk assets.

Read more The second wave (Perspectives edition 10/2020)